Large-scale study for Europe (2012)

Precipitation validation for Europe (24H)

Precipitation simulations:

  • Percent correct hourly = 85%
  • Amounts: 90% within +- 30%
  • HSS* 0.3 - 0.6 (>1mm/day)
  • Consistent over continents

Used on all meteoblue simulations.

meteoblue can forecast more than 75% or 85% of all precipitation events with more than 2 or 5 millimetres (mm) correctly 3 days in advance. This includes forecasting the days on which such events will not occur. Looking at precipitation events of 2 mm, meteoblue can forecast 50% of those 6 days in advance, and more than 60% one day in advance.

What does that mean?

Personally: If meteoblue forecasts rain 1 day ahead, it will arrive in at least 2 of 3 cases; and a meteoblue rain forecast of 6 days ahead has more than 50% chance to occur.
Technically: with meteoblue precipitation forecast models, you have statistics that are so solid that you can calculate economics of intervention for precipitation events based on the meteoblue forecast.

HSS*: Heidke Skill Score

Large-scale study for World (2016)

In this study on almost 9000 weather station, the new meteoblue multi-model precipitation forecast showed accuracy superior to ECMWF.

Verification precipitation report FORECAST EN 20180607z08 MM.pdf (1.24 MB)