Introduction of the multimodel approach for radiation in 2017
In a meteoblue radiation verification study from 2017, for hourly radiation simulations, the following results could be found:
- Bias < 10% for all sources
- The hourly MAE* lies between 5 and 30% for multimodel simulations (standard for forecast and history simulations)
- The hourly MAE* lies between 5 and 20% for intraday forecast and satellite observation
- These findings are consistent over all continents
The multimodel technique is used for all meteoblue radiation simulations.
*MAE: Mean absolute error in percent of the mean observation value. For further information, please consult the full document of the 2017 radiation verification study.
Improvements in 2018
Like other variables, our radiation forecast and history is a matter of constant improvement. Furthermore, it is important to us to show the data quality of different sources transparently.
Thus we carried out another study, with the Fraunhofer Institute for Energy Economics and Energy System Technology from Kassel, Germany, where we were able to confirm the potential of multimodelling approaches for radiation simulation, and could compare the multimodel forecast with other sources, like the highly acknowledged IFS model of ECMWF. The results were presented at the Fachtagung Energiemeteorologie in Goslar, Germany and at the EU-PVSEC (the abstract document of the study for the conference is available here) in Brussels, Belgium.
Based on the outcomes of the studies from 2017 and 2018, meteoblue was able to further improve the radiation forecast and to beat the IFS model of ECMWF, which is shown in the graphic below. The improved multimodel forecast was launched in September 2018.